Polish desire to buy new equipment may threaten frontline strength in the medium term

Published: 9/29/1999

Delays in the processing of contracts and numbers of new multirole fighters are causing long-term problems for the Polish Air Force (PAF). It appears that 60 aircraft were initially requested, but it has become clear that this is inadequate to fulfil future needs. This shortfall in aircraft when combined with the failure to undertake upgrades may lead to a lack of operational aircraft. The PAF's 22 MiG-29A/UFs - will be phased out of operations between 2007 and 2010 preceded by the 12 Su-22MKs. The delivery of new equipment should begin by 2004, with up to a dozen planes delivered each year. Even if this process goes according to schedule, Poland will end the first decade of the next century with only four operational squadrons: far behind the nine tactical units proposed. To meet the required timetable, the selection could be made in early 2001, but no later. The imminent collapse of Iryda programme will also leave PAF with another gap in training aircraft although the L-159 is being actively promoted with substantial Polish offsets. The Polish government seems unlikely to find a solution to the problem in the short term as its funding of $3 billion for aviation programmes is inadequate to meet its identified needs and it seems that that additional funding will not be available. The government also appears reluctant to make full use of the cheaper option of upgrades of existing types, following a model being used by many of the air forces of Central Europe, who despite a general reluctance to continuing to use Russian equipment have accepted that operational strength can only be sustained through the upgrade. For Poland, upgraded TS-11 Iskras's could fulfil the training role until new equipment is available and modernising programmes for the Su-22 could extend their lives until 2010 and until 2015 for the MiG-29. Allowing the PAF to retain its front line force at substantially lower cost. In the meantime the PAF is grounding its aircraft. In early September, most of the MiG-23s operated by the 28th Fighter Regiment from the air force's fleet of 36 were withdrawn. To be followed by a large number of the PAF's 100 MiG-21PFMs and MFs over the next few months. By the end of 2000 this will leave the PAF with a frontline strength of some 40 MiG-21bis, 22 MiG-29s and 86 Su-22s. The MiG-21bis's will be further thinned as lives expire, leading to some substantial radical restructuring among the Polish frontline units.

Article ID: 915