It seems that the fifth generation fighter programme dogged by competition, funding problems and general indecision about what kind of aircraft it should actually be, is still struggling to gain momentum despite the tendering process over the last three months. The committee managing the tender known as “Perspective aviation complex of combat aircraft" or more colloquially as PAK FA, is reported by industry sources, to be some way from finally awarding the tender for the aircraft. Despite undertakings by Minister of Industry, Science and Technology Ilya Klebanov that a decision would be made by the end of March after the committee"s deliberation started in January 2002.Current reports suggest the decision regarding the winner may now be delayed until the second half of this year.

Russian news agency Interfax, quoting an unnamed source from within the industry, has even suggested that the aircraft may be put on ice altogether and replaced by the deep modernization of existing fourth generation aircraft pending the development of a sixth generation aircraft at some point after 2010, the original date for the LFI to enter service.

Under the State Program of Armaments approved in January 2002, the winner of the tender is entitled to government funding of $1.5bn over the next nine years, supplemented by revenues from the sales of existing combat aircraft, which has been interpreted as a sign of a victory for Sukhoi given its healthy order book. A view supported by Klebanov, who stated, at a recent defense industries conference in Yaroslav, that 50% of the project"s funding would come from foreign sales of the aircraft by Aviation Holding Sukhoi.

The success of Sukhoi in this programme has always been predetermined by those who saw it as the lynch pin to the restructuring of the industry. With the demise of MiG as an independent fighter entity, speculated as early as January 1999 by the then Deputy Prime Minister Yury Maslyukov, as a consequence. With Maslyukov predicting at that time the merger of MiG and Sukhoi as a single Russian fighter entity within three to four years. In fact even the fifth generation tender in itself, is something of an afterthought, in place as the result of the political expedient of demonstrating the semblance of open access for producers other than Sukhoi.

The principle reason for Sukhoi"s advantage is that the interests for many senior figures in the industry and government remain the vertical and lateral integration of the fighter industry. With the state positioned at the top of the pole, pulling the strings and directing finance for future developments from current sales lessening the burden on the state budget. While still retaining control of the not inconsiderable political role which aircraft sales play in foreign policy as well as the domestic industrial and political scene.

Unsurprisingly, such concentration of power is not unopposed and has been opposed for some time by both management and shareholders, in addition to politicians in the country"s regions where the fighter plants are located. The arguments against the consolidation of resources differing little from those put forward in the US, icluding loss of large programme experience and beneficial competition. With the added pressure that the military are uncomfortable with radical pruning given the risk that what may follow may be worse than that which went before.

To a degree the issues of restructuring to facilitate a new aircraft may be superfluous if adequate funding is not provided. The $1.5 billion in principle provided by the government is simply inadequate, a view supported by almost all participants. Despite the money being designated however, and the need to advance with the task in hand if time table is to be met, no monies are earmarked for the programme under the current state budget for 2002. In these circumstances it would appear that Colonel General Mikhailov, the air force commander, may feel little need to answer to the pressure to decide in Sukhoi"s favour and may see a little competition between the two parties as a means of getting more for less from the producers. As it may result in more development work without budget funding before decision is finally given. As both Sukhoi and MiG are aware of the need for the industry to have a competitive product, they just cannot decide on who should lead the programme. Mikhailov"s determination to resist government pressure for what he considers to be inappropriate decisions not in the best interest of the service, has been demonstrated by the air force"s recent decision, although yet to be officially announced, in favour of the Yak-130 despite reports of the government favouring of the MiG-AT.

The problems with developing the fifth generation programme within the existing funding regime acknowledged by former Deputy Industry Minster Alexander Dondukov, unceremoniously dropped from his aerospace industry portfolio late last year. Who said any decision made now will simply not be implemented, as there is “insufficient R&D to support the programme and by speeding up the program, we will be stopped by that fact". For Dondukov the deep upgrades are the only viable route ahead, effectively perpetuating the separate existences of both Sukhoi and MiG. A view not entirely unexpected from the former General Director of Yakolev, who are in the position of being number 2 if either of the current tenders are accepted.

For the supporters of a greater Sukhoi, the delays in the LFI have also served to slowly close the window of opportunity to consolidate the industry. A MIG with no funds being easier to sideline than one with a steady flow of new aircraft orders and the imminent possibility of an Indian order for large numbers of MiG-29Ks. Particularly when the improved export positioning of MiG comes against a background of significant changes in political influence at the top of the Russian aerospace scene. With industry consolidator and Sukhoi supporter Klebanov"s powers diminished and with fellow consolidator Yury Koptev"s contract as General Director at RAKA, reported to have passed its official end in mid March with no news of renewal.

MiG is also increasingly regarded as being a more viable option than in the past in terms of its design capability, according to sources. With some arguing that Sukhoi may have lost the early advantage of the S-37 and the previously perceived dominance in terms of technology.

The many elements in this long running internecine feud between the various parties concerned with fighter development, including disputes between the air force and the Ministry of Defense. Appear to have left the conclusion of the tender process no closer. The recent meeting of those tendering for the LFI held by the air force, appears to have not resolved any of the outstanding issues regarding the programme or for that matter made the future progress any clearer. Mikhailov remaining at best, in most commentators" view, undecided concerning the future of the programme, and certainly in no rush to make a decision given what is considered to be strong leverage with producers in the face of no available funding. Koptev for his part has moved to what appears to be a more neutral stance, but still with Sukhoi in charge. Koptev recently suggesting that the programme could be conducted jointly, but with Sukhoi as the leader.

For the overall industry the delays in establishing who is going to design and build the new aircraft, what engine might power it or whether it is sensible to build it all, reflect the ongoing weakness of the aerospace industry. The Putin administration has of late taken a strong line with recalcitrant players in other sections of the industry so perhaps in fighters sense will prevail. Russia accepting the reality of having two groupings competing for a small pool of funding and perhaps that they may have missed the boat on the fifth generation fighter and the sixth generation may be the first available opportunity to get back on board.