Press hype seems unrealistic, especially given parallel allegations of problems with Iranian assembled aircraft (1,010 words)

Published: 10/4/2001

According to local press reports in the Ukraine, Antonov's long term courtship of the Iranian government and producer IAMI - also known as HESA - may have yielded further production under licence of the An-140 (IRAN-140) at IAMI's plant at Ishfahan, over the original agreement for the production of 12 aircraft by 2004, with options for a further 40. The reports claim that the Iranians are now looking at the aircraft for a broader range of applications and see the basic An-140 platform as the basis of development for a broad range of variants for both military and civilian uses. "Experts" quoted in the press estimate that the demand could reach 400-600 aircraft by 2020, based on the development of the speculated civil and military variants of the An-140 in Iran, supported by Ukraine, ANTK Antonov and the current production plant KhGAPP.Reports at the time of the signing of the original licence agreement with Iran in December 1999 did, however, calculate that the order could potentially grow to 120 aircraft. While in principle a licence deal of this size would undoubtedly benefit the Ukrainian participants that, besides Antonov and KhGAPP, include Motor Sich, the producer of the aircraft's AI-9-3B turboprops, the fact that the programme is currently in limbo in both Ukraine and Russia through lack of funding suggests that this level of Iranian interest appears very optimistic. Antonov, even at its most enthusiastic, publically estimated total demand at 1000 aircraft: a figure that was subsequently reduced to 500-600, with 300 sales domestically at the end of 1999. Sales within Russia and the CIS, considered to be the aircraft's core markets given its role as a replacement for the An-24, did not in fact emerge, bar a couple of connected deals with carriers associated with KhGAPP and Antonov. Antonov Airlines was the recipient in one case and, according to Antonov, was currently supplying the revenue to keep the programme alive, after the suspension of production at KhGAPP in May. The lack of demand or the prospect of demand has led to the production line at KhGAPP, inhabited by five airframes, being wound down and the Russian production line at Aviakor in Samara not started. Although a recent JV between Antonov and avionic producer, St Petersburg-based Leninets, has suggested that efforts were being made to revive the programme and improve the aircraft's attractiveness by upgrading the avionics. The reports of massive sales seem to fly in the face of a leaked letter attributed to the Director of ANTK Antonov office at IAMI to unnamed deputies of the General Designer of ANTK Antonov, dating from 18th March, 2001. This states that: · SAO IRI (Aviation Register of Iran) considers the An-140 does not meet level laid out in the contract and that ANTK Antonov did not provide sufficient documentation on the aircraft to form a true appraisal of its capabilities. · SAO IRI will not take responsibility beyond the first three aircraft produced at IAMI serial numbers 90-01, 90-02, 90-03) on the basis that they do not meet Iranian requirements and "cannot be operated in all Iranian flight zones". · SAO IRI believes that the programme has more to do with IAMI proving it can build aircraft, rather than a commercially viable project. The document also indicates that the An-140, even with the number of passengers limited to 35 and not the 52 claimed, can only fly 55% of Iranian air routes, due to what is believed to be problems related to the ability of the aircraft's main powerplant to maintain the cabin environment at altitudes of 5,180 metres and above without the use of the APU. However, the situation that existed in March may have been resolved, as only last week, Konstantin Savchenko, the excecutive at Antonov responsible for overseeing the production of the An-140 in Iran, reported the process to be in "full swing", with one aircraft in a test programme, a second close to completion and a third in production. Even so, this is no significant change from the programme's status at the end of March 2001, where some participants on the Iranian side of the programme estimated operations commencing by the end of this year. Reports from Iran and the Ukraine have also suggested that the Iranian assembled aircraft currently flying has turned out to be substantially heavier in terms of takeoff weight than billed: at 21.5 tonnes, rather than the officially stated 19.1 tonnes. Sources attribute the increase to design features rather than to, say, increased fuel load. There has also been the suggestion that the aircraft proved to be unable to keep altitude when flying on one engine in certain regions of the country, presumably the mountainous north. To date, Antonov has ascribed the Iranian problems with the aircraft to its local production. Dmitry Kiva, Deputy General Designer of ANTK Antonov recently said that the aircraft met all Iranian standards and that, at a meeting in August with the Iranians, they had not reported any difficulties. He added that the performance of the programme should not be judged through the release of "interim documents": presumably a response to the leaked letter dated March 2001. Given the importance of Iran as a customer for Russian and Ukrainian civil aerospace output, it seems likely that any problems with An-140, if they do exist, will be resolved. This is necessary if only to maintain a relationship in the wider context of proposed production of a number of aircraft, including the Tu-334 and Tu-204 and also in the case of the Ukraine, the sale of 12 An-74s by KhGAPP. The reports from Iran still imply that considerable work remains to be done on the An-140, if it is to get 12 aircraft successfully in service, never mind "400-600".

Article ID: 2797