The
first flights of the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) technology during the last few
months have revived the debate within Russia about the development of the fifth-generation
fighter programmes. According to reports, the issue of ongoing development of
the technologies for a fifth generation aircraft has been discussed at the Security
Council, largely responsible for making the commitments, in September and October
2000.
For the industry the issue while by no means a new theme, has taken on increasing
importance. Primarily due to the belief among producers and export agencies
that a failure to continue with development of the technologies currently employed
in the two demonstrator aircraft, the Article 1.44 and the S-37, will severely
limit the ability of the Russian industry to compete internationally in the
medium term, removing Russia from a market in which it has been highly successful
globally.
The increasing desperation of the industry for the future has however, come
at a time when the industry's primary target market, the Russian Air Force,
has been delaying and reconsidering the nature of its requirement for a replacement
fighter. A stance that reflects, both the MoD's immediate and medium term funding
pressures and an operational mission far removed from a fifth generation fighter.
This lack of an immediate mission has left the government according to reports,
with the dilemma of not particularly wanting the fifth generation aircraft,
but eager to make sure that the skills and knowledge base required to build
such aircraft and other advanced aerospace programmes in the future stays intact.
This lack of an immediate need is also accompanied by the desire on the part
of the budget ministries to reduce defence expenditure, particularly funding
in this area, which has been sustained at a low level since the MFI was first
envisaged. Unofficially the original fifth generation MFI proposal has been
rejected as too expensive, in favour of the replacement with the lightweight
LFI. For the producers and export agencies this has resulted in the focus of
developments being the export markets, principally India and China, both having
been offered potential fighter versions of the two demonstrators. Some interest
was received, but little has resulted in the way of tangible commitment from
potential partners, although there remains much speculation of international
cooperation on a programme even the belief that the Europeans may have interest
in such a cooperation.
For the industry the need for further development is viewed as pressing,illustrated
by a comment from a source within Rosaviacosmos (Russian Aerospace Agency),
"If we do not make a move now, the JSF might find itself the only export-cleared
new affordable fighter on the market and will have all of the market". Mikhail
Pogosyan of AVPK Sukhoi, has expressed a similar stance believing that if a
fifth-generation fighter program is not launched this year then Russia will
lose its position on the future fighter market. Rosaviacosmos is reported to
be proposing to the Russian government that it encourages the creation of an
industrial group that would undertake development and production of fifth-generation
fighters. The industrial group according to sources will be made up of "economically
healthy and technically capable enterprises with the ability to concentrate
their resources on a cost-effective development of the fighter aircraft and
its components". What this actually means in reality is unclear, but seems likely
that Sukhoi, given its current financial and technological strength, will lead
the proposed "fifth-generation fighter directorate" tasked with guiding this
industrial group. The ability of the agency to achieve such a structure is still
the subject of debate given that the Putin administration seems considerably
less committed to the agency and its leadership role than the previous administration.
Recent changes in the administration of the industry through the merger of
the two leading export agencies and the establishment of a new management however,
suggest that the programme financed by a tax on revenues onexport arms sales,
of which Sukhoi's sales are the largest component, may find a more sympathetic
hearing from government. The new arrangements will have to resolve a fifth generation
development limbo land in which Sukhoi and MiG continue their respective programmes,
but with no great enthusiasm and Yakolev, the third fighter bureau increasingly
under funding pressure has no fifth generation involvement. Neither of the programmes
is particularly advanced in terms of testing with the S-37 prototype still lacking
a fifth generation engine. The rivalry between the two active participants has
also not led to cooperation with little sharing of data from the new technologies.
The
programmes
The Light Combat Aircraft (LFI) was originally discussed in 1998-1999 as a
competitor in the program to create a Multi-Functional Frontal Fighter (MFI)
initially outlined in the 1980's. Over time however, it has largely surpassed
the MFI, although itseems likely that the MFI will not be totally abandoned
in favour of an LFI programme developed from scratch in the current budgetary
environment. The LFI is therefore likely to incorporate technology from the
existing fifth generation demonstrator programmes. With reports suggesting that
the MiG LFI offering could be a scaled down MFI or in the case of Sukhoi an
S-37 powered by a single AL-41F. Provided that the MoD finds one or other an
attractive base both in cost and design for the aircraft's development, the
development of the existing demonstrators would seem to justified for the producers
at least, as those without any exposure seem unlikely to gain access to potential
contracts in the future.MiG's prospects as a programme leader however, seem
limited given the general acceptance of the Sukhoi's primacy, but potentially
the fifth generation may yet becoem the catalyst for the merger of the two entites
as suggested early in 1999.
Mikoyan offering for the LFI is currently being designed and reportedly would
use the Article 1.44 to test its AL-41F engines and assess issues of the new
aircraft's aerodynamics and controllability. The problem for the development
may however be the funding and status of the Article 1.44 technology. To date,
instead of the 24-28 flights as "a first stage" of the MFI flight-test program,
the aircraft has made only two flights since February 2000. The slow progress
explained in part by the lack of funding and the low priority given to the MFI
by RSK MiG management. The RSK MiG Engineering Center (formerly the Mikoyan
design bureau) has largely focused their efforts on the fourth-generation +
aircraft the MiG-29SMT-2, MiG-29K and MiG-31BM. RSK MiG's commitment to those
"4+" generation military programmes and that of the Tupolev Tu-334 100-seater
airliner have undoubtedly reduced the priority of the fifth-generation fighter
designs, largely being funded by the bureaus themselves.
Only Sukhoi appears to have the current capability and resources to have any
chance of producing a fifth-generation fighter at the level of the JSF. In contrast
to RSK MiG, Sukhoi has been far more successful in developing and selling its
"4+" generation combat aircraft - the Su-30MKI and Su-30MKK, with the commensurate
cash flow. Although the group's progress with the fifth-generation combat aircraft
programmes has also been slow given that Sukhoi has also focused on improving
existing aircraft, in this case the Su-27 Flanker, and gaining near term revenues
rather than aggressively testing the S-37 Berkut and developing Sukhoi's vision
of the LFI. Some sources within Russia are even arguing that the LFI may be
redundant for the export markets in the medium term. The arguement being that
the upgraded Su-27KUB, while not as technologically advanced as the Berkut,
with AL-41F engines and N014 radar, will represent a low cost export competitor
for Russia, even against the JSF and F-22 Raptor in their early downgraded export
versions .
For those companies charged with the development of the fifth generation avionics
and radar. The foreign funding for the development of the Su-30MKK and Su-30MKI
programmes, has allowed Phazotron-NIIR of Moscow, RPKB of Ramenskoye and NIIP
of Zhukovsky - to launch the development of fifth-generation on-board equipment.
The primary element for any successful development of a fifth generation aircraft
is the fifth-generation engines. The Al-41F thoroughly tested on a MiG-25 test-bed
as early as 1987-88 and produced by the Moscow-based A.Lyulka-Saturn company
has little current competition and is unlikely to have any given that no potential
competitor is beyond the basic design stage. As with the assembly of the aircraft,
Rosaviacosmos and other state bodies are reported to be considering a plan to
create a new venture with engine producers to put the AL-41F and other fifth
generation engines into. This industrial group would undoubtedly include Rybinsk
Motors, MMPP Salyut and TsIAM (Central Institute for Aviation Engine-building).
