Russia's early warning system in danger of giving no warning at all

Published: 2/8/2000

Russia's early warning system is reported to be now so decrepit, owing to lack of funding, that, during at least seven hours per day, it can no longer detect intercontinental ballistic missiles and is completely blind to submarine-launched missiles. Analysts believe that only four of 21 early warning satellites are working. This is as much a problem for the USA as it is for Russia. Russia's newly promulgated national security doctrine expands the first-strike role for nuclear weapons. In addition, the logic of nuclear deterrence requires both sides to launch their missiles before a surprise attack obliterates them. In the heat of a crisis, analysts fear that Russia may misinterpret a non-threatening rocket launch or unambiguous data as a nuclear first strike and so launch a salvo at the USA and Western Europe. US-initiated efforts to prevent such an incident have met with limited success. Russia retreated from an earlier proposal to allow US officers into Moscow's early warning centres, and subsequent reports indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) has no desire to participate in a permanent joint early warning centre. Russia's refusal to discuss any US-led solutions to the problem provides more justification for the US to build a National Missile Defence system, in order to guard against an accidental or unauthorized intercontinental ballistic missile launch from Russia.

Article ID: 1402